Corona Kismet Karma

Corona Kismet Karma

World, March 2020-

No doubt, we are all (all means everybody, despite age, sex, gender, country) going through a very stressful period due to the rapid spread of the COVID-19 Coronavirus globally, and the resultant number of cases in many countries, and, of course, the deaths as a result.

Wow, schools closing, factories can’t open for business (unless they are making masks), airlines taking it on the chin, Stock Market in total panic and retreat (that doesn’t take much, and this is a bit much for those bots to absorb). IF this isn’t a Pandemic, we just made it one.

So, the questions I want to consider are:

1. How bad is this outbreak compared to other flash coronavirus and flu outbreaks in past and recent history, INCLUDING deaths from the common flu that we face every year in US?

2. Are the extreme measures being taken prudent or an overreaction?

3. WHY is this outbreak spreading into people’s body and minds faster than any in recent history?

4. What can we learn about our world and ourselves from this experience?

First, the facts as I have been able to research them from the available, public information to date 03/10/2020-

a. The COVID 19 has infected more people than SARS or MERS, but the percentage of deaths is far lower:

So, while the total number of infected cases and deaths is far higher than SARS or MERS, the  likelihood of death is far lower.

Further, the deaths from COVID-19 are a scourge for older people compared to SARs and MERS. Which makes it less of a pandemic threat to most people.

But, we know that the common flu raises its head as a killer in the US every year. How many people die annually in US from common flu every year? 2017-2018 was a bad year, and 61,000 people died IN THE US ONLY from common flu.

For COVID-19 to reach those levels, approximately 1.8 million people would need to be infected.

Going back into history, the “Spanish Flu” of 1918 was reputed to kill up to 500,000 people. Do the math again-14.7 million cases of COVID-19.

In China, to date the number of new cases has gone down and recoveries are proceeding. Updated count as of 3/11 per worldometers.info: 122,745 cases, 4,585 deaths (3.7%)

But wait- why is this flu spreading so quickly compared to past flu epidemics? SARS was in 2003 and not as many people globally were infected (see above); does this mean that COVID-19 is more contagious than SARS?

One week in February 2020 in NYC, there were 17,233 cases of flu reported. So far this season, 106,824 cases have been report in New York.

So what is different? about COVID-19 from other Flu Pandemics? The answer is obvious to me: technology, air travel, and the whole world is FAR more interconnected than it was in 2003. The good news is, if the world was as interconnected in 2003 as it is now, the death toll from SARS would have been far higher.

So what about the extreme measures being taken? China took extreme measures and the disease has already peaked. So we should not be afraid to do the same, albeit a little more difficult here. The case of the National Guard being used in New Rochelle is, in my opinion, an appropriate example of an extreme measure.

I believe people are sadly unaware of just how close the world has become in the last 17 years since the SARS outbreak and what impact this has on living in 2020.

So it scares the snot out of all of us to think that people are so mobile, the disease, for  better or worse, could come from anywhere at anytime; in the past, it would be much easier to identify and quarantine the causes. NOT anymore.

So here’s the Kismet Karma part. In 2020, when we are arguing about trade, tariffs, taxes and medical care, this disease comes along to give us a jolt: Cut the political BS and let’s do something to protect the people (not the politicians), while not destroying the principles and lifestyle that have made us what we are. Tearing down a wall is destructive unless its replacement not only benefits more people, but makes more people happy. 

Here’s another important Kismet Karma point: IN the past, when the epidemic was confined to China or other remote places, we were satisfied to say Awww, and not think too much about the situation of those people facing the disease OR how we could help; now that it is in our own backyard, we became concerned, of course. So what is the lesson for the future?

Stop arguing and start working TOGETHER. Maybe COVID-19 is a signal, at the right time.

And, most of all, realize that we are all people in the same world, and our fates depend on each other. Doesn’t matter if it is China, US, or anywhere else.

And we should recognize that bad karma brings bad luck. So let’s treat each other the way we want to be treated, which includes governments and people working on disease control, hunger, education, conservation, etc.

Let’s take the hint; people are literally dying to tell us.

"High Noon": Are you prepared for yours?

High Noon, Stanley Kramer Productions, 1952

The phrase “High Noon” is well known in the US, and in many countries, from a 1952 movie  of the same title, starring Gary Cooper, which depicts a Western town Marshall facing  the return of the baddie he put in jail years ago, after the corrupt political system has released him. 

Quick plot summary: Frank Miller will arrive on the noon train, and his main purpose in returning is to kill Will Kane, the Marshall who sent him to jail. Miller is an ominous character, well known in the town, and Kane, recently married to a handsome Quaker woman (Grace Kelly), has to decide if he will run off with his bride or face Miller.

He decides, despite the protests of his bride, that running off to avoid the confrontation is not the way to solve the problem. So he decides to stay and face Miller. He travels through the town and asks for help to face the criminal and his three cronies, who are already waiting at the railroad station.

Everybody forsakes Kane, through cowardice or perceived self-preservation. So he is left to face Kane and his cronies alone at Noon when the train arrives. His wife declares she will leave him if he follows this course of action, and his former girlfriend, Helen Ramirez, won’t take the risk of standing by him.

The movie, written by Carl Foreman, was an allegory to demonstrate what was going on during the early 1950’s, when the HUAC (House Un-American Activities Committee) of the US Government was intimidating the entire Hollywood community of actors, writers, producers, directors, etc with a “blacklist” of supposed Communist subversives in the film industry. This produced a meltdown of creativity that lasted for many years, and ruined the lives of many gifted people, such as Dalton Trumbo, not to mention the quality of Hollywood films for almost a decade.

Since then, the phrase “High Noon” has entered the vernacular as a seminal confrontation which defines you and your enemies.; a decision that will change your life and the lives of others, probably which will define the rest of your journey.

We can list many historical events that are “high noon.” President Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis; President Reagan with “Tear down this wall;” Winston Churchill with his lone stand against Hitler in WWII; the lone individual facing the tanks at Tiananmen Square. You all know the stories.

The recent elimination of Qaseem Soleimani, was Trump’s High Noon. Given the information that was available to him, he could have taken the PC decision (see: Obama, Clinton) and not take him out, allowing what would happen next to happen  (see 9/11). Or, he could take positive and clear action which he knew would be politically divisive, and lend fuel to the fire of his enemies (in the US). 

We all have our High Noon. Our life is defined by how we manage it. 

So the lesson for us in business and leadership is what? Hold to your principles, do what you know is right and needs to be done; don’t be dissuaded by weakness and fear. If you die (ie.,fired etc.), it is better than living as a roach on the end of someone else’s joint.

It is sometimes very difficult to pursue what you know is right when you feel others don’t support you, doubt you, or just won’t help. A little shyly because of what is next, I remember a line by Tommy Lee Jones in Men In Black 3 which went more or less as: “ The most dangerous force in the universe is regret.”

James Joyce, in “Portrait of the Artist as a Young Man” says, 

“I do not fear to be alone or to be spurned for another or to leave whatever I have to leave. And I am not afraid to make a mistake, even a great mistake, a lifelong mistake and perhaps as long as eternity too.”

By contrast, T.S. Eliot, in “The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock” says,

“Do I dare

Disturb the universe?

In a minute there is time

For decisions and revisions which a minute will reverse.”

For me, the operative lyric is “The Road Not Taken” by Robert Frost. This poem is worthy of complete quotation here:

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,

And sorry I could not travel both

And be one traveler, long I stood

And looked down one as far as I could

To where it bent in the undergrowth;

Then took the other, as just as fair,

And having perhaps the better claim,

Because it was grassy and wanted wear;

Though as for that the passing there

Had worn them really about the same,

And both that morning equally lay

In leaves no step had trodden black.

Oh, I kept the first for another day!

Yet knowing how way leads on to way,

I doubted if I should ever come back.

I shall be telling this with a sigh

Somewhere ages and ages hence:

Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—

I took the one less traveled by,

And that has made all the difference.

Will you be prepared for your High Noon? 

What is a Discount?

What is a discount?

Retailers are also consumers and should understand how they think, so here goes my reality check:

Retailer: The obsession with discounting in the apparel business is a retailer’s excuse for not working hard enough to find what the customer will buy at the original price.

Oh sure, there’s Amazon, Walmart, TJ Maxx, etc. etc. They made you do it, right? No. If what you are selling is comparable enough to theirs by any stretch of the imagination, then, is that the sandbox you want to be playing in?

Where is it written that there is only one sandbox in the world? I believe there are a lot of blue oceans in the apparel universe.

Consumer: If someone has to offer you a discount to buy, it is for something you did not want in the first place

OR

you outsmarted them by waiting.

BUT, what if you really wanted to buy something and you didn’t know when or IF it would be discounted? What would you do?

Retailer: Unfortunately, the distortion of reality in today’s retail world is this: the discount is the real price. The original price is BS and has no real value for consumers. The retail gurus, led by Macy’s and Walmart, have molded the customer’s expectations, and trained them NOT to buy until they get what they believe is maximum discount.

There is no doubt that customers buy when they perceive the item is at its REAL value.

Consumer: SO, buying something you really like and want at the regular price tells us two things: a. The item has real value to you which is what? The price PLUS the internal satisfactions that the purchase would bring; and b. you have the self confidence to buy what you want, when you want, and at the price, because you want IT, not the price.

DOES that mean you should ignore discounts offered? Of course not. But the next time you hear the discount bells tolling, think about if they are tolling for thee. And, if you would not have bought the item at regular price, did you really want the item or just the momentary satisfaction of saving money?

BUT- are you really saving if you spent money on something you really wouldn’t buy in the first place, rather than putting that money toward what you really do want? AND, if we believe the saying, “you get what you pay for,” could you be making a mistake?

SO, in the rare case that you go to buy something at regular price and are surprised to find that it is on sale, by all means snap it up (after you think about why the retailer has decided to give it away).

Retailer: IS there a solution to the discount mania that drives away profits and drives people nuts? IF there is one, the only hope is that people put their maximum effort into the PRODUCT and pack it with value, so the price asked IS the real VALUE. The hot item is out there- IF you look and have the merchandising touch to find it. 

Sustainability Report in Fashion Retail 2019 by NOSTO-we tick the boxes

Sustainability. What does this mean, really?

The common definition of sustainability is to maintain something at a certain level. 

As defined by the fashion industry, maybe the definition is just now coming to light, even though the C-Suite has been using it as a buzzword for years.

The report attached here, "Sustainability Report in Fashion Retail 2019 by NOSTO" surveyed 2000 consumers to find out what they think Sustainability is and how it would affect their retail purchases.  In doing so, it clearly defines some main themes that are important to consumers. But-

How important is sustainability to consumers nowadays? From the report:

"50% of consumers who desire sustainable
fashion would be more likely to buy clothes from companies they know
are committed to sustainability, while 28% of them would stop buying
clothes from a company if they find out it is not committed to the cause."

This article is important for BOTH consumers and brands.

• Consumers should read and recognize what coincides with their attitudes toward purchasing and, most important, will they follow this direction? 
• Brands should use the report as a self-check (assuming that sustainability is a key part of their business mission) to make sure that they are doing what they can to fulfill customers' expectations (and their own).

Some key takeaways from this report and how we stack up:

1. 57% try to keep clothes longer because it’s better for the environment. We make our shirts, ties and pocket squares out of natural materials of high quality that won't need to be trashed anytime soon.

2. 46% say they prefer to buy clothes that are made sustainability rather than buying them just because they’re from a well-known brand. Good for us and our future, because this is US.

3. Consumer Expectations re: Sustainability:

   Reduce the amount of packaging (75%)

• Provide fair pay and good working conditions (74%)

• Use renewable and recyclable materials (73%)

• Make clothes that are designed to last longer (71%)

• Use fewer resources — e.g power, water, materials (64%)

• Focus on innovation to come up with new environmentallyfriendly

materials and methods for making clothes (61%)

• Create initiatives to help people resell or recycle their

old clothes (59%)

• Make clothes in classic styles that will stay in fashion longer

(to encourage people to keep them longer (49%)

We have described all of the above on our website. And we tick all the above boxes except the second to last, which we haven't started yet because we're new. But we will.

Our business was built with this goal in mind and is mission-critical to us. 

How about your favorite brand? What are they doing NOW about sustainability (not what are they saying). Please do check and let us know!

Why you are not buying clothes (but should be)

Why you are not buying clothes (and should be)

 Here are the top reasons you (and everyone else in US) are not buying clothes anymore:

1. Clothes are boring- regardless of price, what can you buy that you don’t already have in your closet?
2. “Low prices are not fun anymore”- As CNBC reported in October of this year, “Consumers have reached peak happiness with clothing purchases” “In other words, consumers already own so many clothes that each new item they purchase doesn’t spark happiness.”
3. Consumers have given up on department stores as a location for fashion inspiration- As you can see from the below chart, by age group, between 34% to 51% of Macy’s consumers have given up shopping there in favor of TJ Maxx, Target, Amazon, etc.
4. There is too much to look at online; what should I buy?- The Paradox of Choice has betrayed us by giving us so many choices we don’t know what to believe anymore.
5. Clothes are disposable- So I buy this heavily discounted clothing, and a few months later, I find that either I don’t like it anymore or it looks like crap.

Does this mean consumers are just not spending money? NO. In fact, for example, Millenials have increased their total annual expenditure by 233% since 2013. Yet, total apparel industry revenue has declined since then. So what are they spending their money on? NOT clothing.

CNBC again: ““Put simply, consumers would rather spend their marginal dollar on, say, going out for a meal, than on buying a 60th item of clothing in a year,” 

But we all love clothes- IF they make us feel happy, appreciated, powerful, individual. Can anyone deny this? Social movements have all expressed themselves with clothing and style; in the 60’s and 70’s, the social revolution expressed itself dramatically in a change of style. Today, we have the LGBTQ and women/minority social revolution, which will have much more of a lasting impact on society and the male/female persona than any other in the last 50 years at least.

AND, if we can feel that each purchase of clothes is an investment, not a fast-food purchase, we might actually buy more. 

Finally, at the same time, the sales and penetration of luxury brands has increased significantly.

So, what does this tell you about what you should do to rid yourself of disposable clothing and to begin to build a stable wardrobe of stuff that makes you happy when you wear it and will continue to support you as a wardrobe foundation?

But First- Wait, let’s be clear-tell me if you don’t agree- great clothing makes you happy every day.

6. Throw out your disposables- First, throw out all those items in your wardrobe that you were seduced to buy because of 50% + another 20%, sale ends today, etc. 
7. Buy VALUE, not PRICE- Focus your expenditure on items that will satisfy your expectations, not just your wallet.
8. Don’t buy anything that doesn’t make you happy every time you wear it- The self-esteem generated by a bargain will never match the self-esteem which you get from a really great garment.
9. Understand that, in today’s global marketplace, luxury is AFFORDABLE for most of us- Don’t be afraid- you don’t need any tax returns or certification to buy excellent clothing.
10. Interact with your chosen providers; they are anxious to hear from you (or should be)- Today, the customer is the CEO- make your wishes known.

There is no better way to express yourself than through the clothes you wear. Period. 

So let’s find a way to build our own custom presentation through clothing. You can!

We have made affordable luxury and sustainability a priority in our shirt business:  https://www.lotusandmichael.com. 

source info:

“Social” vs “Traditional” CRM: The “new thing” or symptom of backasswards?

“Social” vs “Traditional” CRM: The “new thing” or symptom of backasswards?

  

A lot is being written recently about the emergence of “Social CRM.” How is this different from the CRM that went before?

One article defines it as follows:

Traditional CRM is a business strategy that materialised in a set of applications. The software enhances data management, automates sales and marketing processes, and helps to oversee customers’ behavior and communication histories. The core of this CRM model is expressed in the standardised performance that uses input data as a basis.

Social CRM is an innovative approach to fulfilling the strategy of business processes facilitation and cultivation of trustworthy relationships with existing and future customers. The uniqueness of this CRM consists in the modifying the content into a full-scale and meaningful conversation with a prospect that is handed out via social networks and digital channels.

So, the dynamic engagement with the leads and prospects, instead of uninvolved messages, is the striking difference of social CRM. (Article)

I was going to let the suspense build a little before giving my two cents, but I can’t. The above is too way off in its perspective to resist.

First- Traditional CRM materialized before most applications existed. In the  late ’90’s, Gerhard Raab wrote, “Customer Relationship Management: A Global Perspective,” in which he defined 6 stages of CRM which I would call “Traditional:”

1. Customer Orientation

2. Product Quality

3. Customer Satisfaction

4. Customer Retention

5. Customer Value

6. Company success

which, as I teach, formed the core foundation of today’s CRM. 

Raab included technology in his Three Pillars, but it is one of 3:

1. Personnel

2 .Technology

3. Organization

Jeff Bezos, who founded Amazon in 1994, when interviewed by CNBC in 1999, used the words “internet schminternet” and insisted that the foundation of his company was not its technology, but its prioritizing the customer. 

An article written in 2017 by Michael Haenlein and published by the Kelley School of Business was entitled, “How to date your clients in the 21st century: Challenges in managing customer relationships in today’s world” In the article, the author argues that firms that are not taking the social nature of CRM into account are managing like 30 years ago (’80s and ’90s) and are relying on “outdated rules.” He disparages the “linear process consisting of acquisition, development and retention” and suggests that CRM be moved toward concepts like social influence, opinion leadership and word-of-mouth. And here’s the worst part: He calls the mantra, “the customer is always right “nonsenical”. If the customer isn’t always right, who is?

So here’s my point and the WTF moment that inspired this writing: What these author’s call “Social CRM”- word of mouth, social influence, companies paying attention to the words and actions of customers- predates even the origins of the modern CRM practice as written by Raab and others; it goes back as far as there were marketplaces, to the Agora of Greece, or for one still in existence and more familiar the Grand Bazaar of Istanbul. As I remember the retail business in the 60’s and 70’s, we had no technology to rely on, so what did we do? We talked to the customers! 

Once TV could influence customers, that was the medium of choice. But the intelligence gained from the advertising itself was nil, so what did companies do? Talked to customers!

Fast forward to the 80’s and 90’s where the new new thing were infomercials. Broadcasters talked to customers directly, and the customers called in to talk back. Social CRM? Of course!

It is true that the social media technology has altered the landscape of customer relationships. With it, the ability to measure Customer Social Value, Customer Lifetime Social Value, and Customer Equity presents an opportunity for greater insight into the customer’s mind and helps us to understand and predict their actions.

But, to me, that capability does not present a new aspect of CRM. It clearly tells us that we went astray for the last (?) years where companies sat in their offices and relied on IT to tell them what the customer was thinking instead of getting the answer for themselves.

Most authors that I have read in pursuing the subject of CRM as a professor, as well as competitive strategy, warn that, if a company allows IT to dominate the CRM process and be strictly or chiefly responsible for the results, it is wrongfooted and making a (costly) mistake.

So, if this Social CRM “revolution” can accomplish anything useful, it will be to get IT off the head of the table and put it in its rightful place, as data support to confirm, on a statistical basis, what we learned from the customer in the FIRST place.

Do you want to know why I think the customer is always right? Because the customer is the CEO, and the BOSS is always right..