Right or Wrong? September 2017 UPDATE

I write articles because I am excited about the future of business (the challenges make it more exciting!), and the articles always have a prediction or recommendation. Having made those, I should follow it as the story develops. Then, I should publish updated news, regardless of whether it makes my original story right or wrong. Last, update the story with new details when it is called for.  This is consistent with my principle that change is constant and fluid, a circle that keeps renewing itself; and that the opposite of change is death. The essence of change is change itself; if the story changes and you don’t see it and act accordingly, or, if you were wrong in the first place, and don’t rectify your course-well, your future doesn’t look so good.

So what am I talking about-here and now?

My blog is too new for some of my vision to come to total fruition. But there are significant snippets of news or updates that I noted and want to share. Let’s go:

1.     Social Compliance- In my article, “Social Compliance-A Needed Reevalution, “ (http://www.isourcerer.com/2017/06/social-compliance-needed-reevaluation.html )I called for a simplification of the audit process, and for government and local industry to set mandatory principles and take ownership of the process. And for customers to simplify their requirements to what is really important. This would result in a simpler process that factories would embrace, and less cheating and corruption.

a.     Let’s be clear that this is still not happening in China. And the same old corrupt and overcomplicated process is still ongoing.

b.     But, there are efforts being made elsewhere. In Bangladesh, the BKMEA (Bangladesh Knitwear Manufacturers Export Association) is attempting to set standards and oversee health and safety compliance in its factories, as well as providing guidance and training. (http://www.bkmea.com/BKMEA-at-a-glance.html)

c.      Also in Bangladesh, there is the Accord on Fire and Building Safety in Bangladesh, an agreement between brands and trade unions for remediation of unsafe conditions, such as existed in the famous Rana Plaza fire. The August 2017 report suggests that great progress is being made (http://bangladeshaccord.org/wp-content/uploads/Accord-Quarterly-Aggregate-Report-August-2017.pdf) The AWFBS, Association for Workers Fire and Building Safety, with similar structure and goals. Note that Bangladesh has announced that it will take over administration of these issues in 2018 (https://sourcingjournalonline.com/bangladesh-form-factory-inspection-platform-us-led-alliance-steps-aside-td/); that could be very good or very bad.

d.     The Social and Labour Convergence Project out of Amsterdam seeks to establish an accepted world standard and relieve “audit fatigue” (http://slconvergence.org) . This is a great idea if the single standard is simpler, not more complicated. I am afraid that global accords like this are difficult to achieve-the more cooks in the kitchen, the more muddy and unappetizing the soup.

e.     Conclusion- Efforts are being made, and that is good. At the rate it is going, however, the results will take too long. It will take US or China government, in conjunction with brands, to do something dramatic which will accelerate change. Good luck with that..

2.     Category Killers- My Article of the Same Name (http://www.isourcerer.com/2017/08/the-category-killers.html) These are retailers such as Zara, Uniqlo, Aldi, Lidl, whom I have predicted, most recently in the above article, (but repeatedly since I started my blog), will change the world of retail. Their penetration and importance at retail continues to increase. Here are some updates:

a.     H&M has opened a new division called Arket. It is a polyglot of merchandising like Zara (specialty brands like Massimo Dutti), Uniqlo, and Muji, décor like IKEA. Much different than their flagship stores, higher priced (I assume higher quality), but still in the category killer range. (https://www.kantarretailiq.com/Conversation/ConversationDetails.aspx?id=1501715&krsrc=mhi&utm_source=Linkedin&utm_medium=LinkedinPost&utm_campaign=H%26MArket&utm_content=TiffanyHogan )

b.     Aldi has announced in UK that it will shorten payment terms in UK from an average of 33 days to 14 days, effective immediately. Brilliant! First, it could come back to bite Aldi if they were offering low prices to customers, yet choking their suppliers. Second, it seems to me it is a gauntlet thrown down to their competitors that the stakes are now a cash game. Third, as a supplier, I am more likely to give better prices to customers who pay quickly. Wait for more news on this one. (http://www.insider.co.uk/news/aldi-gives-suppliers-boost-shortening-11080523 )

c.      “Retailers Should Think More like Zara.” What I said. Faster (speed to market) fashion, more and more fluid seasons to encourage repeat purchases, quality and value pinpointed on the consumer’s expecations (not an abstract, or margin-driven, strategy). Seems they all had a meeting at Magic in Las Vegas and figured this out. To me, “more like” doesn’t mean copycat-see the direction, acknowledge it, and shape it in your own image. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/deborahweinswig/2017/08/28/retailers-should-think-like-zara-what-we-learned-at-the-august-magic-trade-show/)

d.     Conclusion: The Category Killers keep killing it. If you are NOT them, and thinking and acting on how you can be more like them and take some of their thunder, they will continue to gain more ground on you.

As a trend tracker, you must keep your ear to the ground and your eyes in the sky. Per my commitment, I will continue to update these trends as they develop, and modify or restate my conclusions accordingly.

Bra or Bralette? Know Your Dinosaurs

I wonder how many women reading this are wearing a bralette vs. a bra? Out of 7 days, how many days do you wear one versus the other? How many of each do you own now?

Recently, Victoria’s secret announced that it would be discontinuing bralettes in favor of its wheelhouse, structured bras. The rationale was, basically, that anyone could make a bralette, but it took special equipment and skill to make a bra. That decision would be defensible if this were an incidental trend that could be ignored. But with L Brands (Victoria’s Secret parent) earnings seriously down, you would think they might have thought more about the trend, and considered, could one of the world’s most respected bra makers dominate in bralettes?

Just this kind of stasis is what makes dinosaurs, and dinosaurs get extinct.

Edited magazine, in the article entitled, “The Lingerie Trend that Rocked the Entire Category, “(March 23, 2017 https://edited.com/blog/2017/03/lingerie-trend-changing-category/), reported that  “sell outs of push-up bras have fallen by 50% compared to a year ago while sell outs of bralette, or triangle bras, have rocketed by 120%. “

In addition, they reported that price points at major retailers as well as brands had sunk significantly due to the increasing popularity of bralettes: “Bergdorf Goodman’s recent new-in focuses 44% of their bra products priced below $50, whereas last year that was little more than one per cent. Even Calvin Klein increased its emphasis on the $20-30 price point by 22%. “

Wow. So what is going on here? First, let’s say what it is not. This is not a price phenomenon. If you go by Victoria’s Secret decision, this is just a fad that can be weathered. I am not a category expert; nonetheless, I disagree: to me it seems that the bralette phenomenon is one of those disruptive trends that changes not only the item itself, but everything around it in fashion. OR it is one of those disruptive trends that is the result of changes in fashion or social changes. OR both at the same time. Fashion eruptions are a result of social changes, and designers who are part of those changes find a great way to express them through fashion. History bears this out.

I am saying that bralettes are not only here to stay, but that they will put the traditional bra out to pasture within a few years or shorter. Why?

1.     They are cheaper. Recently, it is documented that the US consumer is spending a lower percentage of their disposable income on apparel. Perfect.

2.     They reduce skus. Bralettes can come in 5 or 6 sizes, not the dozens that traditional bras need. So stores can carry less stock per style OR carry more styles.

3.     They are conducive to numerous looks and fabrics. Much more so than the traditional bra.

4.     They look and feel more natural and comfortable than a structured bra. (So I am told)

5.     They can be sometimes worn as sports bra or sports bra can be worn as bralette. Multifunctionality is a key to not only a wanted wardrobe item, but one you buy more of.

6.     Most important-They marry better with sportswear and dress styles popular today than the traditional bra.

7.     OK, maybe this is most important-They are accepted to be seen from outside, while a peek or more of the traditional bra looks like a wardrobe malfunction.

I am sure there are more reasons, but the above would be enough for me, if I were CEO of Victoria’s Secret, to rethink that decision.

I hope it is not monotonous to hear, again, that this is exactly what I have pointed out every time I have commented on the retail scene: Change or die. Focus on presenting value and excitement in what the consumer wants, not just price. And, most important, forget the idea that what you did yesterday is still valid today. IF you think it is, prove it by treating it like you would a new idea.

For those of us with some history in the fashion business, this is déjà vu. What is also déjà vu is the fact that those who recognize the disruptive trend and represent faster and better than their competitor, win. That is what I was taught during my years as department store buyer. Still true today.

Again- I am predicting the rise of the bralette and the marginalization, if not extinction, of the traditional bra.

But more than that, I am predicting the marginalization, if not extinction, of those who miss the signals of disruptive change, or see them and stand pat. I know a dinosaur when I see one.

The Category Killers

Lidl, the German grocery chain which currently operates 10,000 stores in Europe, opened its first stores in the US on June 15^th of this year. Plans are to open 20 stores in that region this summer. This chain opened its first stores in the UK in 1994 and now has dominated that country’s grocery retail, sending others into tailspin or oblivion; Lidl now holds 7% of the UK grocery market.

Lidl is what I call a category killer- a retailer with sniper focus on a narrow portion of their category, who aims to be the best at what they do and does not try to be all things to all people-- like a Walmart Supercenter or a traditional grocery/hypermarket. Years ago, it seemed the formula for success was to be bigger, bigger, bigger. One stop shopping. IF it exists, you can buy it there. The same formula was adopted and used by traditional department stores and category retailers such as Dick’s in building new stores, and in their business model.  I believe this formula is not the key to customer’s hearts anymore.

What is Lidl’s business model? What are the lessons for grocery and other retailers in the US?

Business Insider recently did a series of articles about Lidl, visiting their newly opened stores in the US. Here are some key takeaways from those visits:

·      Lidl’s stores are smaller, averaging 20,000 square feet. By contrast, a Walmart Supercenter is 260,000 square feet and a Kroger Marketplace can be as large as 145,000 square feet (Wikipedia).

·      90% of the products at Lidl are private label. (Business Insider)

·      Product selection is limited. Lidl averages 2,000 products in its stores while the average supermarket has about 20,000, with about 60,000 at supercenters (Business Insider)

·      Focus is on “fast moving items.” Narrow and Deep. Simplify to what customers want to buy, for the sake of argument, 90% of the time. By that logic, 90% of the space in traditional supermarkets or supercenters is for what consumers buy 10% of the time?

·      Cost efficiency-

o   It displays the goods in boxes they were shipped in-either vendor boxes or PDQs assembled at the vendor.

o   Customers weigh their own produce.

o   Presentation is kept simple- with the above packaging is super fast and easy to restock, saving on labor costs.

o   Natural lighting reduces energy costs (Business Insider)

·      AS a result, prices are amazing. Recently, CNBC visited the 14^th Lidl store in Chesapeake, VA, where hundreds of people queued up to get in. Wow. Some highlights:

o   Pineapple-89 cents

o   Award-winning red wine- $2.89

o   A package of prosciutto(size unknown but have you ever seen one for this price?)-$1.99

o   Jar of wholegrain mustard-$.69

o   10 oz of fresh salmon-$6.49

o   Lidl’s prices, according to CNBC, were about 15% lower than Kroger, 10% lower than Walmart and 5.7% lower than Walmart Supercenters. NOTE: They were about the same as Aldi (another German supermarket category killer). (CNBC)

One customer, interviewed by CNBC at the time, flatly stated that based on her (brief) experience at Lidl, she would not be shopping anywhere else in the future. But let’s note: AS amazing as the prices were, they were not massively lower than Walmart Supercenters. My conclusion is: Category killers’ success is not totally about price; it is about merchandising focus,  the perception of value and the experience.

(I have not been to a Lidl or an Aldi other than Trader Joe’s (which is also about value and experience, not price). However, last winter, on a visit to Parma, Italy, I did visit a Conad supermarket, whose operating principle is similar to Lidl and Aldi. I was blown away by the prices, value, quality, and the freshness of everything. The vegetables were not fresh-they were sparkling)

Does this bring the point home? Consumers are not stupid; conversely, they are very savvy about where and how they spend their money. Sure, they will go to Dick’s to buy a basketball for $.99; but where will they spend most of their time and money on sporting goods in the future? That is the key question for retailers- where is the stable future?

Category Killers are the future of retailing; at least the main component of its future growth, OR those who will be taking up the space that traditional retailers vacate. Why will this space be vacated-or, why is it being vacated? Each retailer has their own unique situation. But the common thread is, as Edward Stack, CEO of Dick’s Sporting Goods said recently, that they are in “panic mode.” That statement does not include a clear plan for present and future stability other than frantic promotion. The tail is wagging the dog: consumers have figured it out, but some major, traditional retailers have not. And their passionate response is driving retail sales growth today.

I note that I unwittingly use the term “traditional” for retailers like Macy’s, Dick’s, Kroger, etc. The fact that I can use that word is indicative of the problem. Once I have a new characterization to hold on to, problem solved.

In my earlier article, “Wow! Fire Sale! Retailers in ‘Panic Mode.” I wrote about category killers and their business model as one antidote to the steep decline of American traditional retail. Maybe changing business mode to Category Killer is not the only road to survival and a bright future for American “traditional” retail, but it is a force to be reckoned with, and a really good model to learn and adapt.

LIdl plans to open 100 stores in the US this year. I hope one of them is in my neighborhood.

Wow! Fire Sale! Retailers in "Panic Mode"

This week, Edward Stack, CEO of Dick’s Sporting Goods, announced that retailers are in “panic mode”:  "There's a lot of people right now ... in retail and in this industry in panic mode. They seem to be in panic mode with how they're pricing, and we think it's going to continue to be promotional, and at times irrational, going forward," Stack said.

His approach to this situation: "We're not particularly happy that we're in it, but we think we are ... one of the few that are very well-positioned to come out of the other side very strong and continue to be the leaders in this industry," 

So his answer is to be more promotional than, or at least as promotional as, the other guys. Who are the “other guys?” Amazon and Walmart? In Jim Cramer of CNBC’s words, “the dark star?”

Maybe. Traditional retailers like Dick’s and Macy’s are looking at not only declining sales, but plummeting market cap. Macy’s market cap shrunk from $24.11Billion 2 years ago to $5.935Billion today. In the same time frame, Dick’s decreased from $5.62Billion to $2.98Billion; Target from $52.45Billion to $30.40Billion. You knew this, but Amazon increased from $240.03Billion to $459.11Billion, and Walmart from $197.46Billion to $240.71Billion. (CNBC)

Ouch. The panic mode is not surprising. The question is, what can be done about the situation they find themselves in other than lower prices, which further lowers sales volume and margin: Will lower prices do anything more than bring in customers who know the store is in panic mode? Will temporary reductions promote customer loyalty? What is the target strategy for emerging from panic time?

The last is the real question. What Mr. Stack is saying is understandable as a survival move, but what comes next? None of these retailers can do this forever. Become a discounter? Price is a no-win area to compete in as someone can always be lower than you. Unless a pricing strategy in terms of value is where you live. And unless the shopping experience stimulates people to visit the store repeatedly, not just when you are madly promoting, giving product away gets you nothing but more losses.

So I would like to learn from Mr. Stack and other CEOs in this situation, what are you doing to prepare for the light at the end of this tunnel? How do you leverage current loss-making promotions for future profitable, sustainable success? In the old days of retail, as a Federated (A&S, RIP) buyer, we took aggressive markdowns to clear out the slow selling merchandise, opening financial and store space for the new items which we worked very hard to find; those which would sell out at regular price. The more times we were right, the better our sales and profit.

One key mark of the merchant prince of those days was the ratio between hits and misses. Then as now, successful merchandising is a combination of price, excitement, and value perception.

Really, then, the road map to success in the world of retail is no different than it was 40 or 50 years ago: Find something customers will get excited about, every day. We scoured the market to find those items, and racked our brains as to how to present an exciting retail experience on our sales floors. Should it be any different today? No.

Who will lead us to the promised land? Where are the “merchant princes” that produced an exciting shopping experience which led these now-in-dire-straits retailers to growth years ago?

Cramer says retail is a two horse race now-Walmart and Amazon. I don’t agree. In fact, with the current traditional retail leaders vacating space in the customer’s mind and pocketbook, it is a fantastic opportunity for a new breed of retailer to take the castle. There is no way everyone is going to shop at Walmart and Amazon only, or buy 100% of their needs online. Have you been in a Walmart Supercenter lately? Way too big, too confusing, and quality is still as questionable as it always was.

So who will take the castle space vacated by the traditional retailers? It will be what I call the Category Killers (further on that- the sequel to this article-coming soon). For example: in fashion-Inditex just opened its 94^th market. In food-Lidl opened its first stores in Virginia, North and South Carolina June 15 of this year, and I can’t wait until one comes to my neighborhood. Is this totally about price? Not at all-it is about value and a simplified, FUN shopping experience.

I don’t believe for a second that the traditional retailers cannot play in this ballpark. Here’s my point: Even with their severely shrunk market cap, they still have the financial capability to make major changes-if they have the mindset, the leadership and the merchant power to do so. First, decide it is time to make the needed changes. Then-Simplify. Shrink and narrow the product offering. Reorganize your sales floors to reflect the new assortment-in a simple, attractive way. Get customers excited about something other than today’s discount. Maybe open category killer stores-not discount stores.

Since we haven’t heard about their future plans for stability and growth, I can’t say what they have and have not figured out. I hope they are passionately inspired to make the needed changes.

“Panic mode”-brings to mind a burning building. Hope the courage and cunning can be found to put out the fire and bring back stability.

This is truly an exciting time in retail.